Risk and uncertainty in strategic decision making

Strategic control in decision-making under uncertainty.

Complex economic decisions - whether investing money for retirement or purchasing some new electronic gadget - often involve uncertainty about the likely consequences of our choices. Critical for resolving that uncertainty are strategic meta-decision processes, which allow people to simplify complex decision problems, evaluate outcomes against a variety of contexts, and flexibly match behavior ...

Uncertainty and Risk in HTA Decision Making

Decision making under risk and uncertainty.

Decision making is studied from a number of different theoretical approaches. Normative theories focus on how to make the best decisions by deriving algebraic representations of preference from idealized behavioral axioms. Descriptive theories adopt this algebraic representation, but incorporate known limitations of human behavior. Computational approaches start from a different set of assumpti...

Environmental uncertainty, foresight and strategic decision making: An integrated study

Article history: Received 2 March 2011 Received in revised form 27 June 2011 Accepted 13 July 2011 Available online 9 August 2011 This paper explores how the foresight practices and techniques that might be used for coping with environmental uncertainty are coordinated throughout large corporations and how their results are used for supporting strategic decision making. Based on an in-depth and...

Robust Decision Making under Strategic Uncertainty in Multiagent Environments

We introduce the notion of strategic uncertainty for boundedly rational, non-myopic agents as an analog to the equilibrium selection problem in classical game theory. We then motivate the need for and feasibility of addressing strategic uncertainty and present an algorithm that produces decisions that are robust to it. Finally, we show how agents’ rationality levels and planning horizons alter ...